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Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

2012-03-29 18:49:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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If you've been following me on the Realtime News Feed, you're likely to have noticed a discernable shift in my bias: I'm buying higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets. There are two reasons, but they are essentially one in the same: both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are in the midst of massive easing cycles (so are other major central banks, but that can be disregarded as per my picks).

Even though Chairman Bernanke has backed away from his ultra-dovish rhetoric in recent weeks (beginning on February 29 at his testimony on Capitol Hill), the fact remains that the Fed is still a very dovish institution at present time. I firmly believe that, while there isn't a legitimate economic reason to do so, the Fed will choose to unveil another round of easing in the coming months, most likely in the form of a sterilized bond purchase program.

While my original AUDJPY and AUDUSD longs hit their initial targets before being stopped out, I reentered a long AUDJPY position from 84.88 earlier this morning after the 15:00 GMT candle started to form as a Hammer. This, coupled with the pair sitting at support of a possible Head and Shoulders topping pattern on the daily chart, led me to enter my trade. My Stop is at entry for now.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX

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