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Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.44% Germany 30: 0.29% FTSE 100: 0.21% Wall Street: 0.03% US 500: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wUKJcyCkjB
  • 🇺🇸 Industrial Production YoY (MAY) Actual: 16.3% Previous: 16.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • 🇺🇸 Industrial Production MoM (MAY) Actual: 0.8% Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • The lack of technical or fundamental drivers sees stocks take the path of least resistance. DAX 30 and IBEX 35 drift higher. Get your #DAX market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/pTSiYtOYha https://t.co/CGwIcLj51d
  • Combine some modest Dollar strength pre-FOMC and a slide from the Sterling after its run of data and $GBPUSD looks like it is tempting fate on a head-and-shoulders pattern. Dubious of follow through until tomorrow though https://t.co/jofJwvwwEu
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Industrial Production MoM (MAY) due at 13:15 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Industrial Production YoY (MAY) due at 13:15 GMT (15min) Previous: 16.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • Semiconductor shortage? Outrageous lumber prices? Used cars? Those narratives are all in the data: - Motor vehicles & parts -3.7% - Furniture & home furniture stores -2.1% - Electronics & appliance stores -3.4% - Building materials -6.9%
  • May US retail sales miss expectations at -1.3% vs -0.7% exp (m/m). Core misses as well, -0.7% vs +0.4% exp. But a look beneath the hood tells a familiar story: supply chain constraints have lifted prices, so consumers are spending less.
  • 🇺🇸 PPI MoM (MAY) Actual: 0.8% Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio's Analyst Pick

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

If you've been following me on the Realtime News Feed, you're likely to have noticed a discernable shift in my bias: I'm buying higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets. There are two reasons, but they are essentially one in the same: both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are in the midst of massive easing cycles (so are other major central banks, but that can be disregarded as per my picks).

Even though Chairman Bernanke has backed away from his ultra-dovish rhetoric in recent weeks (beginning on February 29 at his testimony on Capitol Hill), the fact remains that the Fed is still a very dovish institution at present time. I firmly believe that, while there isn't a legitimate economic reason to do so, the Fed will choose to unveil another round of easing in the coming months, most likely in the form of a sterilized bond purchase program.

As such, I've taken the opportunity to get long into higher yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar on dips. Currently, I am long AUDUSD from 1.0430 (triggered overnight) with an open target. I will look to add on dips.

I'm also long AUDJPY. This seems like overexposure but I'm rather bearish the Japanese Yen this week. Seasonally speaking, the Japanese Yen tends to depreciate from mid-March to early-April as companies move funds around for tax exemption then repatriate said funds just a few weeks later (thereby lifting the Yen). This would suggest to look for a weaker Yen in the days ahead (a push higher by AUDJPY, NZDJPY, and USDJPY) before a deeper retracement by said pairs in three weeks.

Any other trade ideas and general macroeconomic musings can be found in the Real Time Newsfeed, or by following me on twitter @CVecchioFX

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