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Waiting for EURUSD Short at 1.3600; GBPUSD Short at 1.5895

Waiting for EURUSD Short at 1.3600; GBPUSD Short at 1.5895

2012-02-24 15:48:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Here's what I'm watching, with respect to Yen weakness and Euro strength.

- AUDUSD: While my small short missed its target by 8-pips (was looking to close trade from 1.0670 at 1.0592), it was closed out at breakeven for a net-gain/loss of 0-pips. I remain on the sidelines with this pair, though on rallies towards 1.0800 I will be looking to short.

- GBPNZD: The pair is closing in on its 2011 low of 1.8542. I'll be looking to sell a breakout as more easing from the Bank of England hasn't been priced into the GBP yet, in my opinion. I will then flip sides and look to get long around 1.8300 (exact level TBD).

- GBPUSD: The pair exploded higher today, trading at 1.5863 at the time of writing. The pair has traded in a descending channel since mid-October, with topside trendline resistance at 1.5895 and the 200-DMA at 1.5903. I will look to short in the 1.5895/905 zone, as it will be a tough nut to crack on first pass.

- EURCHF: I noted this week, "With the pair flirting with the 1.2100 handle, I'll be looking to buy on a dip below 1.2050, but closer 1.2030, the 2012 low. Reward/risk is high, given the monetary and political pressures on the Franc." I have initiated a small long EURCHF position at 1.2050, and I will add below 1.2030, as scheduled.

- EURUSD: I noted on Wednesday, "An hourly triangle is forming, with an explosive move higher or lower expected in the coming hours. A sustained move above 1.3320 could lead to a rally to 1.3600, and I will get heavily short at said level, given trendline confluence." Having clear the 100-DMA, the short-term pattern suggests a break to 1.3600, and I maintain my bias to short at this level.

- USDCHF: With the EURUSD surging (the EURUSD and USDCHF have held a -0.93 correlation since September 6), the USDCHF has dipped below 0.9000. With my forecast for the EURUSD to rally to 1.3600, I expect the USDCHF to fall to the 200-DMA at 0.8763. I'll be looking to buy at this level.

Any other trade updates can be viewed in the real time news feed, or you can follow me on twitter at @CVecchioFX for trade thoughts and other macroeconomic musings.

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