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Small AUDUSD Short Intraday; Patience Elsewhere

Small AUDUSD Short Intraday; Patience Elsewhere

2012-02-22 15:34:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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The mixed bag of data in the overnight lends to the notion that global growth prospects are dimming. Manufacturing and service surveys from France, Germany, and the broader Euro-zone all disappointed to the downside. What the Euro-zone "needs" at this point is a weaker EURUSD, and I continue to maintain this bias despite the consolidation the EURUSD has undergone between 1.3000 and 1.3300. The U.S. Dollar's rally may not merely be a correction, but the start of a strong move higher through the end of February, in my opinion.

- AUDUSD: "Golden Cross" formed on Monday, with 50-DMA moving above 200-DMA. Typically, this is the sign of a constructive move higher for a bull run. It is worth noting that its counterpart, the "Death Cross" (50-DMA below 200-DMA) formed on October 4, the subsequent 2011 low. Last night, per twitter, I noted hourly moving average resistance to the upside (and swing high) and placed orders to sell at the 20-HMA at 1.0670 (at the time). With the pair currently at 1.0628, I've moved up my Stop to Breakeven, and will close the trade at 1.0590 (just above daily S2).

- GBPNZD: The pair is closing in on its 2011 low of 1.8542. I'll be looking to sell a breakout as more easing from the Bank of England hasn't been priced into the GBP yet, in my opinion. I will then flip sides and look to get long around 1.8300 (exact level TBD).

- EURCHF: With the pair flirting with the 1.2100 handle, I'll be looking to buy on a dip below 1.2050, but closer 1.2030, the 2012 low. Reward/risk is high, given the monetary and political pressures on the Franc.

- EURUSD: Could a Triple Top be in the makings? False breaks above the 1.3300 handle have offered a decent opportunity to scalp some shorts, and with a lack of bullish reaction earlier today, any rallies above said level should look to be sold, on a fundamental basis. The intermediate technical structure remains bullish, however, despite the recent consolidation in the short-term. An hourly triangle is forming, with an explosive move higher or lower expected in the coming hours. A sustained move above 1.3320 could lead to a rally to 1.3600, and I will get heavily short at said level, given trendline confluence.

- USDCHF: Likely to come under further pressure on a Euro-zone resolution - this includes parliaments ratifying the agreed upon measures (that will be the next big leg down in the U.S. Dollar, in my opinion). The pair is unlikely to test its post-SNB peg low of 0.8567 without bouncing off of the 200-DMA at 0.8763. I'll be looking to buy at this level.

Any other trade updates can be viewed in the real time news feed, or you can follow me on twitter at @CVecchioFX for trade thoughts and other macroeconomic musings.

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