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Long USD/CAD

Long USD/CAD

2011-10-14 16:04:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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The USD/CAD has arguably had one of the most volatile rides the since the end of July. After falling to 0.9405 in late July, the pair’s lowest exchange rate since November 2007, the USD/CAD has moved essentially vertically towards fresh 2011 highs. In the last four-weeks alone, the USD/CAD has traded under 0.9800 and just over 1.0650 – a remarkable 850-pip range. This kind of volatility is rare in FX markets; price action exhibited on a weekly or even daily basis was unseen across months at a time, years ago.

This type of trading environment provides immense opportunity – but also immense risk. Markets have shown that they will turn without prior warning, considering fundamentals are playing little role in what drives price action. Instead, price action has shown us that markets are trading on psychology – fear. Accordingly, while it is not my normal analysis to utilize Elliott Waves, given the dramatic shift to trading on psychology, I believe using Elliott Waves in the current environment is best suitable for technical analysis.

Update: we're still waiting for our entry point as the USD/CAD remains in a favorable range. A break of 1.0000 invalidates our bias.

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