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Staying Flat; Eying EUR/GBP, USD/CHF, CHF/JPY

Staying Flat; Eying EUR/GBP, USD/CHF, CHF/JPY

2011-08-30 13:49:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

These markets are frustrating; low volume begets no clear direction in the markets (and vice versa: high volume indicates a technically strong market). With no clear direction given the lack of conviction by these rallies, I am looking to 'short risk,' that is, sell higher yielding currencies in favor of lower yielding currencies (ie, short AUD/JPY, short NZD/USD). As such, I will reexamine setups tomorrow as London is no longer on holiday and market participants return to the New York market following the storm over the weekend.


I am still watching a EUR/GBP opportunity to the downside, now that the European debt crisis appears to be ready to take the stage front-and-center once more. With the EUR/CHF off the table as a viable hedge given the Swiss National Bank's relentless intention to make the markets as incongruous as possible, the Sterling appears to be the beneficiary of any European haven flows.


Similarly, now that it appears that the Swiss Franc is no longer a viable hedge, as haven flows are redistributed, I'm also watching for a long USD/CHF above yesterday's high at 0.8240, as well as short CHF/JPY for a breakout opportunity to the downside below 93.000, a level that served as resistance in April and May (now turned support).

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