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Look for Dollar Strength Ahead of Friday’s Release of Payrolls

Look for Dollar Strength Ahead of Friday’s Release of Payrolls

2010-03-29 14:04:00
Antonio Sousa, Chief Strategist
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This week, the United States Bureau of Labor is likely to announce the U.S. economy probably gained 182 thousand jobs in March, according to a Bloomberg survey. Even tough, the final figure will be largely influenced by temporary hiring for the 2010 US Census, it is still quite a remarkable improvement from February when the economy lost 36 thousand jobs. I also look forward for the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) surveys which are likely to show an improvement in both manufacturing and services sentiment. Because the ISM measures confidence and not past growth, it is usually a good predictor of future economic performance. That said, the Federal Reserve is now expected to increase rates by nearly 75 bps, according to overnight index swaps which measure interest rate expectations for the next twelve months. Eventually, a widening of the interest rate differential between the United States and other countries will help the US dollar. Therefore, I have been long USD/JPY since 86.00 and long EUR/JPY since 2 weeks ago. Please make an intelligent use of leverage and always use stops.

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