Talking Points

  • USDOLLAR holding below important Fibonacci level
  • Trendline connecting December/February lows remains critical

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The FXCM US Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) failed earlier this week just below the 78.6% retracement of March range at 12,095. This level looks to be an important pivot for the Buck in the near-term and while the index sits below this level there is still plenty of scope for a more meaningful correction against the primary trend in USD – perhaps even a violent one should trendline support around 11, 945 give way. Traction above 12,095, on the other hand, would be a strong technical signal that the dollar is embarking on another important leg higher and is set to resume the broader uptrend. This morning’s US employment data should give some clarity on which course the dollar is headed. We like buying dollars on a weekly settlement over 12,095 and selling them on close sub 11,945.

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FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX Daily Chart: April 3, 2015

Price & Time: USDOLLAR Stalls At Key Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risk in the Week Ahead:

Price & Time: USDOLLAR Stalls At Key Pivot

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 12,048 (Fibonacci), 12,095 (Fibonacci)

Support: 12,018 (Fibonacci), 11,945 (Trendline)

Strategy: Buy USD

Entry: Buy USDOLLAR only if it can manage a weekly close above 12,095

Stop: Daily close below 12,018

Target: 12,200

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.