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  • already been a strong week for $USD and we haven't even hit noon on Monday
  • is Gold overlaid with the net speculative futures positioning from the COT. It was fairly heavy net-long but not overindulgent. Worth evaluating its full haven properties an if they still apply
  • Gold isn't acting like a safe haven - or at least a traditional one. Clearing support back to late July in this risk-off environment. Was there speculative funds topping this off that need to be freed up for margin elsewhere?
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.52% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.62% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.93% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.46% View the performance of all markets via
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -2.56% Wall Street: -3.10% FTSE 100: -3.91% France 40: -4.17% Germany 30: -4.80% View the performance of all markets via
  • ...and a well-known carry trade pair, $AUDJPY, has started to tip into retreat - though I wouldn't say this has the same scale of discreet directional change
  • The $EEM emerging market ETF has opened to a sharp gap down on the open and some follow through, but technically still above its range floor at the moment
  • $EURUSD levels from this morning's webinar looking good. . Archive out shortly . .
  • Elsewhere, the popular $HYG 'junk bond' ETF has slipped below a long-term Fib and range floor at 84 - though it finds itself now at the 200 DMA
  • ...Australia's ASX 200 has its own breakdown but it isn't as dramatic a reversal after months of horizontal congestion
A Look At EUR/USD Before Stress Tests & The FOMC

A Look At EUR/USD Before Stress Tests & The FOMC

2014-10-24 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD rolling over?
  • 1.2580 area looks key

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

There is no shortage of trading catalysts in EUR/USD over the next few days as the ECB announces the results of its bank stress tests on Sunday and the FOMC decides whether or not it will proceed with tapering on Wednesday. Our work with cycles and other timing methods suggests the euro should soon resume its broader downtrend, but there is some risk we get a final stab higher early next week (and possibly even into the start of the following week). As such, we like selling the euro around 1.2800 if it gets there with a stop somewhere above the 50-day moving average. On the downside, the 78.6% retracement of the month’s range near 1.2580 looks to be an important pivot and a close below this level would signal that the broader downtrend has already resumed.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart: October 24, 2014

A Look At EUR/USD Before Stress Tests & The FOMC

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risk in the Week Ahead:

A Look At EUR/USD Before Stress Tests & The FOMC


Resistance: 1.2780 (Gann), 1.2835 (Gann)

Support: 1.2610 (Gann), 1.2580 (Fibonacci)

Strategy: Sell EUR/USD

Entry: Sell EUR/USD at 1.2780

Stop: 1-day close above the 50-day moving average

Target: 1.2500

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.