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Gold the Commodity or Gold the Currency?

Gold the Commodity or Gold the Currency?

2014-08-01 11:50:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Important cycle turn window coming up in Gold
  • Key support zone eyed around 1280

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Gold has come under steady pressure over the past few days. This weakness in conjunction with the selloff in global equities is perplexing to some, but our view is that the metal is unique in that in can trade sometimes as a commodity and other times as a currency. At the moment it is clearly trading like a commodity which is seeing it come under pressure. However, our cyclical analysis of the metal suggests that this weakness should not last too much longer as the upcoming week should prove to be important from a timing standpoint. If the early June low was significant, like we think, then Gold should try to turn up again sometime over the next few days – ideally midweek. Important support is seen between 1280 and 1262. A move under 1262 would undermine the positive outlook.

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GOLD Daily Chart: August 1, 2014

Gold the Commodity or Gold the Currency?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risk in the Week Ahead:

Gold the Commodity or Gold the Currency?

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 1296 (Gann), 1315(Gann)

Support: 1280 (Gann), 1262 (Fibonacci)

Strategy: Buy XAU/USD

Entry: Aggressive traders can look to purchase around 1280, while more conservative traders can wait for confirmation of a reversal on a move through 1296.

Stop: 1-day close below 1262

Target: Open

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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