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Was That An Important USD Low?

Was That An Important USD Low?

2014-04-03 15:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD reverses from key cycle turn window
  • Key resistance awaits at 10,600

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Last week wrote a couple of notes on the potential for a low to be seen around 10,500 in the FXCM Dollar Index (read them HERE & HERE). The Index is an equally weighted basket of the US Dollar against the Euro, Pound, Yen & Australian Dollar and gives a good snapshot of the how the Greenback is faring generally. Strength in the Index has begun to materialize over the past few days and a close over the median line we mentioned last week now at 10,540 will be initial evidence of bottom in the USD. The next more widely watched technical level will likely come into play around the March 20th high at 10,600. Traction above here will confirm further that a bottom is in place and set the stage for a more important USD move higher in the weeks ahead. Only weakness below 10,495 would completely undermine the burgeoning positive cyclicality in the Index and re-focus lower.

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FXCM Dollar Index Daily Chart: April 3, 2014

Range_APR_3_body_Picture_2.png, Was That An Important USD Low?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risk in Coming Sessions:

Range_APR_3_body_Picture_1.png, Was That An Important USD Low?

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 10,560 (Fibonacci), 10,600 (March 20 high)

Support: 10,540 (Median line), 10,495 (March low)

Strategy: Buy FXCM US Dollar Index

Entry: Buy FXCM US Dollar Index at 10,540

Stop: 1-day close below 10,495

Target: 10,650

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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