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Fishing For a Low in the Aussie

Fishing For a Low in the Aussie

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Several cyclical methodologies converge over the next few days
  • Last couple of weeks in December have a positive seasonality

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

AUD/USD recorded a new low close for the year on Wednesday. The decline to this point has been impressive with the exchange rate losing more than 8 big figures since its failure at the 200-day moving average back in October. However, the decline is now more than 40 trading days old. One of our favorite trend cycle lengths is around 45 days as this marks a Gann Commodity “death cycle” where short-term reversals are more frequent. Interestingly this day count will roughly coincide with the Winter Solstice (in the Northern Hemisphere) this weekend which is another potentially important inflection point in Gann theory. It is also worth pointing out that the last few weeks of December are one of the stronger periods of the year for the exchange rate on a seasonal basis. Factors certainly seem to be aligning for at least a short-term reversal in the Aussie over the next week.

AUD/USD Daily Chart: December 20, 2013

Range_dec_20_body_Picture_2.png, Fishing For a Low in the Aussie

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risks in Coming Sessions:

Range_dec_20_body_Picture_1.png, Fishing For a Low in the Aussie

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 0.8960(Gann), 0.9035(Gann)

Support: 0.8800 (Gann), 0.8760(Gann)

Strategy: Buy AUD/USD

Entry: Buy AUD/USD at .8805

Stop: 1-day close below .8755

Target: 0.9035

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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