Talking Points
- Medium-term cycle turn window seen over the next couple of days
- AUD vulnerable to a reversal
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Several short-term cyclical methodologies align over the next couple of days in AUD/USD. Given the exchange rate has been in a pretty steady downtrend since failing at its 200-day moving average last month (during the last cycle turn window of note we might add) we are looking for some kind of low to materialize during this period. Several important support levels including: the 1x1 Gann angle line of the August low, the 5th square root progression of last month’s high, the 4th square root progression of the year’s low and the measured move of the late October decline all converge between .9270 and .9205 – making it an idealized potential stopping point. Conspicuously absent from this technical picture is a sentiment extreme as the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) is fairly neutral at just 51% bulls. This argues that any reversal that materializes during the cyclical turn window could only be short-lived. Any sustained weakness under .9205 would temper our enthusiasm for a reversal.
AUD/USD Daily Chart: November 14, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
Key Event Risks in Coming Sessions:
Source: DailyFX Calendar
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LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance: .9420 (Gann), .9505 (Gann)
Support: .9270 (Gann), .9205 (Fibonacci)
Strategy: Buy AUD/USD
Entry: Buy AUD/USD at .9270
Stop: 1-day close below .9205
Target: .9405
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.
