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Analysis: A Position in the S&P 500 for 'Just in Case'

Analysis: A Position in the S&P 500 for 'Just in Case'

2013-08-14 17:33:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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We have written almost ad nauseum over the past few weeks of the cyclical importance of the first half of August for the US equity market. During this time, according to our methodology, the market is more prone to a shift in trend. So far the broader turn window has been rather uneventful with the index trapped between the Gann levels at 1710 and 1672. However, such ‘boring’ consolidations many times can be part of a broader topping process. With the cyclical turn window coming to an end over the next few days we would like to have a downside entry order in place ‘just in case’ a top is triggered. The 1672 Gann levels looks absolutely critical from both a price and time perspective and any weakness below on a closing basis should set off a much more important move lower in stocks. As such we like selling the SPX on a move below 1672 over the next week or so.

S&P 500 Daily Chart: August 14, 2013

range_spx_body_Picture_2.png, Analysis: A Position in the S&P 500 for 'Just in Case'

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risks in Coming Sessions:

range_spx_body_Picture_1.png, Analysis: A Position in the S&P 500 for 'Just in Case'

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 1700 (Psychological), 1710 (Gann)

Support: 1680 (Fibonacci), 1672(Gann)

STRATEGY – Sell SPX on a 1670 stop

Entry: Sell SPX on a 1670 Stop

Stop: 1-day close above 1710

Target 1: 1600

Target 2: 1565

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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