News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • How does stock market liquidity benefit its traders? Learn more here.
  • BoK Governor Lee says Yellen a rational pick for Fed, would be positive for markets - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.39% Silver: 0.27% Gold: 0.15% View the performance of all markets via
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.25%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 75.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • All my Google autocompletes are now Thanksgiving related. This is making for some interesting suggested searches
  • Bok Governor Lee says action will be taken if herd behavior seen in FX market - BBG $KRWUSD
  • New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern says rising home prices not a plan for growth - BBG
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.214%) S&P 500 (+0.262%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.440%) [delayed] -BBG
Analysis: Trading the Anticipated Turn in AUD/USD

Analysis: Trading the Anticipated Turn in AUD/USD

2013-05-30 16:42:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

AUD/USD has been under steady pressure for the last month and traded to its lowest level in over a year and a half on Wednesday. This decline has been very impressive in terms of its veracity and scope, but a confluence of factors suggests the current decline may soon be reaching a turning point. Extreme sentiment is a particular concern given surveys like the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) show just 17% bulls in the currency amongst short-term futures traders. Historically, whenever the Aussie has neared such levels of negative sentiment it has been a good contrarian and leading indicator of a turn.

Of course sentiment alone is not good enough reason to enter a counter-trend trade, especially in a trend as pronounced as in AUD/USD at the moment. However, given the fact that time cycles suggest a turn of some sort will be seen next week combined with the fact that the exchange rate is nearing critical price levels like the .9570 50% retracement of the 2010 to 2011 advance and we seem to have all the variables necessary for a correction. As such, we like the risk to reward of positioning on the long side over the next few days.

Looking for other ways to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Australian Dollar in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

AUD/USD Daily Chart: May 30, 2013

Range_aud_short_body_Picture_2.png, Analysis: Trading the Anticipated Turn in AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Event Risk Over Coming Sessions:

Range_aud_short_body_Picture_1.png, Analysis: Trading the Anticipated Turn in AUD/USD

Source: DailyFX Calendar


Resistance: .9700 (88.6% retracement of June to September advance), .9790 (Gann level)

Support: .9570 (50% retracement of the 2010 to 2011 advance), .9535 (year-to-date-low)


Entry: .9570

Stop: Close below .9535

Target 1: .9700

Target 2: .9790

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX.


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.