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Analysis: Looking For a Turn in USD/CAD around the Holiday

Analysis: Looking For a Turn in USD/CAD around the Holiday

Kristian A. Kerr,

For some reason or another currency markets have a tendency to stage reversals around important holidays. The Easter Holiday in particular is notorious for this. We assume it is due to the fact that capital markets in Europe are closed for several days- leading to reduced liquidity everywhere else. While a lack of liquidity more often times than not leads to reduced activity as nobody wants to transact it does occasionally lead to sharp moves and increased volatility as the lack of liquidity prompts wider than normal price jumps when participants are forced to transact because of news or other catalysts. We would never advocate trading counter-trend solely because it is a holiday, but when a holiday aligns with other cyclical methods it does usually present a solid risk/reward opportunity.

We will be looking to get long Funds (USD/CAD) over the next few days. A clear Fibonacci related medium-term cycle turn window starts on Friday and extends into Tuesday. At the same time the exchange rate is nearing a critical support zone between 1.0120/40. In this area there are several key retracements related the year-to-date range, a measured move projection of the early March decline and the 2nd square root progression from this year’s high. All are potentially important. A successful test of this zone with the positive cyclicality seen next week should lead to higher prices in Funds.

USD/CAD Daily Chart: March 28, 2013

Range_trade_funds_buy_body_Picture_2.png, Analysis: Looking For a Turn in USD/CAD around the Holiday

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

Event Risk Over Coming Sessions:

Range_trade_funds_buy_body_Picture_1.png, Analysis: Looking For a Turn in USD/CAD around the Holiday

Source: DailyFX Calendar

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 1.0195 (Wednesday’s high), 1.0240 (Gann level)

Support: 1.0140 (50% of year-to-date range), 1.0120 (Measured move of early March decline)

STRATEGY – Buy USD/CAD

Entry: 1.0145

Stop: 1.0095 (-50 pips)

Target 1: 1.0240

Target 2: 1.0285

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

Need guidance managing risk on trades? Download the free Risk Management Indicator.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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