John Kicklighter

Chief Currency Strategist

Fundamental analysis and market themes.
John Kicklighter is a Senior Currency Strategist and head of DailyFX in New York City and San Francisco where he specializes in combining fundamental and technical analysis with money management. Actively trading since he was a teenager, his experience ranges from spot currency, financial futures, commodities, stocks and options on all these instruments for his personal accounts. He holds a Finance and Investment degree from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College in New York City.



A Check of My and the Market’s Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases are distortions in our way of thinking that can push us from rational expectations and actions. This is true both for individuals and groups.

Expectations for President Trump’s Address Top Dollar, Equities Traders’ Focus

There are three dominant fundamental 'themes' jockeying for influence over the financial system: risk trends; competitive monetary policy and devolving trade relations.

Positioning Across Stocks, Oil, Volatility Leverage Structural Risk

Despite glaring fundamental questions and frequently voiced skepticism across the financial spectrum, speculative benchmarks like the S&P 500 have continued to win record highs on a weekly basis.

Markets Face Record Equities, President Trump, Fed Fodder Next Week

The tension continues to build in the most fragile areas of the markets as favored outlets for pressure relief seem to be stopped up.

Dollar Falls Back into Range Despite Charged Fed View, Stock Climb Pauses

This week's two most productive trends - the surge in risk-driven US equities and the reversal for the Dollar - have lost their motivation heading into Friday.

Challenge Your Biases on Risk for Stock, Fed on Dollar, Chaos to Gold

There are many commonly held biases across the markets. Some are systemic such as the superiority of technicals or fundamentals over their opposite.

Dollar Slip Sets Head-and-Shoulders, Shapes Technicals on Majors

This week's most impressive opening move was made by risk assets. Yet, this swell in speculative appetite didn't carry its momentum through the past session.

Fed Strategy Doesn’t Obscure Rate Outlook, Speculation Does

The FOMC minutes release this past session generated an unexpected response. Thought he transcript was arguably hawkish, the Dollar nevertheless dropped.

Mexico’s Peso Lift Another Step in Escalating Global Retaliation

The Mexican Peso surged Tuesday afternoon on news that the country's FX Commission had escalated its effort to stabilize its currency the face of volatility fueled by US policy.

A Return of Liquidity Refreshes S&P 500, Dollar and Oil Bulls

The return of liquidity after the long, US holiday weekend charged US equities, the Greenback and oil bulls. For traders, the question is: which of these strong drives has the motivation to extend it...

Peso Surges As Bank Of Mexico Announces FX Hedge Program

The Mexican Peso surged as much as 2.3 percent against the US Dollar to a three-month high after the Bank of Mexico announced it will offer as much as $20 billion in foreign-exchange hedges.

Neither US-Europe Commitment nor Brexit Debate nor Greece Move Markets

Liquidity proved the dominant force to start the new trading week as the absence of US traders further curbed the already tempered responsiveness of speculators

Better Signals for Risk Bearing, Conviction Than S&P 500, VIX

While the rise of competitive global trade currently commands influence over the financial system, risk trends can take command with the proper motivation.

Next Weeks Holds Light Data, Trump Uncertainty and a Stetched SPX

The source ofrecent performance in US equities is one of the most volatile fuels the markets have everrelied upon: updates by the US President on policy changes

President Trump’s Stock Influence a Familiar Driver with Historical Limitations

Announcements of growth-favorable policies have stoked optimism and leveraged an already speculative market, how long can this influence drive the markets?

A Break of Strongest S&P 500 Rally in Three Years Isn’t a Reversal Signal

A drive to record highs has been punctuated with a seven-consecutive day rally by the S&P 500 that notched the longest bullish stretch in three years.

US Stock Surge Pauses, Dollar Slips Despite Rising Fed Forecasts

Given the fundamental developments and the pacing of the markets this week, it would seem the S&P 500 were more 'at-risk' or reversal than the Dollar.

Calculating Trade Targets and Duration with Market Conditions

Most traders and strategies put the emphases on finding opportunities and plotting the best entries. These are certainly critical aspects of a fully formed trade, but they are collectively only half ...

S&P 500 Rally Hits Peak 3-Year Tempo, USD Falters Despite Rate Outlook

Through January, the rolling three-month correlation between the US Dollar and S&P 500 peaked at a remarkable 0.95.

US Dollar Steady as TIC Data Shows Global Selling

Despite a TIC report showing global selling of US benchmark assets through December, the US Dollar offered a restrained response through Wednesday evening.