Daniel Dubrovsky
Contributing Senior Strategist
Recent Articles
Gold Price Extend Losses in the Aftermath of the Fed, XAU/USD Upside Bets Grow
2023-09-21 23:00:00
Japanese Yen Remains at Risk After the Fed, Retail Traders Unwind USD/JPY Bullish Bets
2023-09-21 05:00:00
Gold and Silver After the Fed: XAU/USD, XAG/USD at Risk to Higher Treasury Yields
2023-09-21 00:30:00
Crude Oil Prices Turn Lower, Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern in Focus
2023-09-20 00:30:00
Australian Dollar May Rise as Retail Traders Become More Bearish AUD/USD
2023-09-19 23:00:00
British Pound Technical Update: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Show that Sterling Remains Pressured
2023-09-19 06:30:00
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Flirts Breakout as Retail Traders Turn More Bearish
2023-09-18 23:00:00
Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Fed, Sterling, BoE, Japanese Yen, BoJ and More
2023-09-17 16:00:00
Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Exchange Rates in Focus
2023-09-16 22:00:00
Gold and Silver Technical Update: XAU August Swing Low Nears, XAG Faces 2022 Trendline
2023-09-15 00:30:00
Euro Sets Stage for Longest Weekly Losing Streak Since 1997, Retail Traders Still Bullish
2023-09-14 23:00:00
Japanese Yen Technical Update: USD/JPY Levelling off, Will NZD/JPY Reverse Higher?
2023-09-14 05:00:00
British Pound Stabilizes as Retail Traders Slowly Increase Bearish GBP/USD Exposure
2023-09-13 23:00:00
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Momentum Fading, AUD/JPY Triangle Breakout Next?
2023-09-13 05:00:00
Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Soars to Resistance as Retail Traders Become More Bearish
2023-09-12 23:00:00
Recent tweets
Sep 22, 2023
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*That should start with "A..." instead of "An...". Don't have Twitter blue so I can't edit and I am not reposting this thread lol
Sep 22, 2023
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(6/6): Yes, there are a whole lot of factors that go into NFP real estate
And we are not considering those here
But just on this data alone, there is not a single quarter (from Q4 2023 - Q1 2025) where the baseline estimate is either jobs growth or unchanged
Food for thought! https://t.co/wx3nfkvT97
Sep 22, 2023
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(5/6): And this is what it looks like if we try modeling NFP real estate using home sales from 1.5 years ago
Again, at 44% explanatory power, it's not perfect, but at the same time, I think it is worth paying attention to, especially considering it's just 1 variable https://t.co/9rYrj6y1zH
Sep 22, 2023
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(4/6): That brings us to this chart
This is the same chart from the first thread, but now I overlaid home sales from 6 quarters ago versus current real estate payrolls
As you can see, this is what I mean by a positive relationship
One goes up, the other follows and vice versa https://t.co/LrXaOtQEH4
Sep 22, 2023
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(3/6): Well, if we compare housing jobs to where existing home sales were 6 quarters ago (that's right, 1.5 years ago), the picture looks a lot different
While not perfect, it's decently positive
About 44% of the variation in NFP real estate can be explained by the lag in sales https://t.co/KYcq5nWgFZ
Sep 22, 2023
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(2/6): It starts with this,
The relationship b/w new & existing single-family home sales and NFP real estate payrolls
(both expressed quarterly, change from a year ago)
This is data going back to the beginning of 2000
As you can see, not a very clear relationship b/w the 2 https://t.co/2PuO1so12H
