Analyst Picks

Jeremy Wagner , Head Forex Trading Instructor

My Picks:  Long USD/SEK
Expertise:  Elliott Wave, Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades:  2 Days – 2 Weeks

USD/SEK has been on my radar for the past several months. For those who are USD bulls, this pair may be a way to trade that bias.

We have a bullish flag pattern that has been taking shape over the past 15 months. There are 5 occasions where price has been resisted by the same trend line. When drawing a parallel of that line, it has supported prices in 2 other instances. One of which also coincided with the 38.2% retracement level in May 2016.

USD/SEK Threatens Break of 15 Month Bullish Flag Pattern

Chart created using FXCM’s Trading Station

The market thinks those trend lines are important so we’ll use the recent spike high on June 24 (wake of Brexit vote) as a trigger to go long.

If price is successful in pressing above 8.76, then it would have broken above the flag and pressed to new post-Brexit highs.

Market Interpretation: Breakout

Bias: Long USD/SEK

Entry: Near 8.7610

Stop Loss: Near 8.5700 (-1910)

First Target: 8.9520 (+1910)

Second Target: 9.3000 (+5390)

This trading opportunity includes a positive risk to reward ratio as we are risking 160 pips to target 520 pips (first target). We discuss this as one of our Traits of Successful Traders in pages 3-9 of our TOST guide. Grab it here.

Interested in a quarterly outlook for USD?Download our quarterly forecast here.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

See Jeremy’s recent articles at hisBio Page.

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Check out the latest standings for the FXCM trading contest HERE.

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David Song , Currency Analyst

My Picks:  Bearish AUD/JPY
Expertise:  Fundamental and Technical
Average Time Frame of Trades:  2 - 10 Days

The near-term rebound in AUD/JPY may gather pace over the coming days as the pair appears to be carving a bullish-flag formation, but the aussie-yen may continue to give back the advance carried over from the previous month should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.


AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Even though the BoJ keeps the door open to further embark on the easing cycle, the central bank may stick with the status quo as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to unveil a ‘bold’ fiscal stimulus package, and more of the same from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may trigger a bullish reaction in the Japanese Yen as market participants scale back bets for more non-standard measures.

At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may come under increased pressure to further reduce the benchmark interest rate at the next policy meeting on August 2 as the 2Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) highlights a weakening outlook for inflation. With that said, AUD/JPY stands at risk of giving back the rebound from the June low (72.43), and we may see the bearish trend from 2014 reassert itself over the coming days/weeks should Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. take additional steps to further assist with the rebalancing of the Australian economy.

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Michael Boutros , Currency Strategist

My Picks:  Near-term Setups in USDCAD, AUDUSD & AUDJPY
Expertise:  Short-term Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades:  1-2 Days

USD & AUD crosses are in focus ahead of key event risk over the next 24hours. Here are the trades I’ll be following into the releases and setup’s we’re currently tracking on SB Trade Desk.

USDOLLAR- The index remains at risk for further losses while below the July high-day close at 12102 with a breach above the 2016 open at 12131 needed to fuel the next leg higher. Interim support rests at the ML / 200-day moving average at ~12028.

USDCAD- The breakout above key resistance noted last week keeps the focus higher while above 1.3103/21/ channel support. A breach higher eyes subsequent topside objectives at 1.3295 & 1.3312.Review Latest USDCAD Update (7/21)

AUDUSD-Looking for long-triggers on a move lower into structural support heading into CPI tonight. Review Latest AUDUSD Update (Today)


Near-term Setups in USDCAD, AUDUSD & AUDJPY

AUDJPY- The pair dipped to within 11pips of the key support range at 77.62-78.04 noted last week. It’s too early to tell if that was the low but the short-side bias is at risk heading into this region and I’ll be on the lookout for long-triggers while above the median-line. Keep in mind we have Aussie CPI tonight & the BoJ interest rate decision into the close of the week. Review Latest AUDJPY Update (7/21)

Continue tracking all these setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 3Q Projections

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

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Walker England , Forex Trading Instructor

My Picks:  USD/JPY Pending Daily Breakout
Expertise:  Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades:  1 Day - 1 Week

Market Condition: USD/JPY Pending Daily Breakout

Target 1: 1X ATR148 Pips

Target 2: 2x ATR296 Pips

Invalidation: Continued Consolidation

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Closes the Week with Consolidation

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

Last week we discussed the emergence of an inside bar on the daily GBP/USD chart. Today, we have a similar pattern emerging as the USD/JPY is set to close the week with a consolidating inside bar. Using Thursdays’ daily candle as a reference, resistance for USD/JPY may be found at a price of 107.49. Support may be found at 105.41 by referencing Thursday’s low. If prices close the week between these values, traders may look for a potential breakout starting with next week’s open.

Traders should note that ATR for the daily USD/JPY graph measures at 148 pips. Traders may use a 1X ATR extension to find initial bullish or bearish breakout targets. 50% of daily ATR measures 74 pips and can be used to create a 1:2

Risk/Reward ratio for any attempted breakout.

In the event that prices fail to breakout, traders may elect to trade the continued consolidation between the previously mentioned values of support and resistance.

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Jamie Saettele, CMT , Sr. Technical Strategist

My Picks:  Short crude oil until at least 42
Expertise:  Technical
Average Time Frame of Trades:  Swing

Since breaking down on 7/7, crude has former a triangle which appears on the verge of breaking down. Also, a parallel that crosses inflection points since February 2015 (magenta line) has provided resistance the last 2 days. The measured move from the triangle would be 41.91, which is in line with the March 2015 low at 42.01 and March 2016 high at 41.87. The slope I am operating on is based on the 2013-2014 trendline.

This analysis and chart appears in today's SB Swing Update. For more, visit SB Trade Desk.

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