Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Outlook: Upward Momentum Fades Slightly. Now What?
Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Ethereum, ETH/USD - Technical Outlook:
- Bitcoin continues to flirt with stiff resistance.
- Ethereum is approaching tough resistance as well.
- Are BTC/USD and ETH/USD turning bearish? What is the outlook?
BITCOIN SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - NEUTRAL
In recent days, Bitcoin has struggled to break past key resistance at the early-October high of 20465. On its own, this may not be a bearish sign (or a reversal sign of the minor uptrend). Considering the pace and the extent of the fall, corrective rebounds have been feeble and shallow this year.
Moreover, the early-October high of 20465 is not the only resistance that BTC/USD is grappling with. It is also weighed by the 89-day moving average, which has capped most rallies this year. Hence, a break above converged resistance would be bullish. That could pave the way towards the September high of 22774. The major topside barrier from there is at the August high of 25201, near the 200-day moving average.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
Bitcoin’s rise in recent days has raised hopes for a broader recovery. However, it is too soon to conclude that the worst is over. At this point, the current recovery doesn’t appear to be any different from the January-March or the mid-2022 rebounds. For a rise to be more than a short-term dead-cat bounce, BTC/USD needs to break above the August high of 25201 at minimum. On the downside, for the short-term outlook to turn bearish, BTC/USD needs to fall below the June low of 17590.
ETHEREUM SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - NEUTRAL
ETH/USD’s two-week-long rally is approaching stiff resistance, pointing to the possibility of a pause. This wouldn’t necessarily mean that the nascent rebound is over. ETH/USD would need to break below immediate support at the Friday low of 1482 to confirm that the short-term uptrend had changed.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
Last week’s jump to 1662 also meant that the price objective of the sideway pattern was met. However, ETH/USD is now testing a tough hurdle on the 200-day moving average (currently at about 1693). This resistance is quite strong – the last time ETH/USD was decisively above the long-term moving average was in 2021. So, a decisive break above the 200-day moving average could have implications for the medium-term trend. Subsequent resistance is at the September high of 1790, followed by the August high of 2031.
On the downside, 1482 is key support – ETH/USD needs to hold above this level for the uptrend to remain in place. However, any break below 1482 could pave the way towards a horizontal trendline from August (at about 1409). Pushing below that would raise the risk of a retest of the September-October lows of around 1193-1220.
--- Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.