- USD Graphic Rewind Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:11 GMT
- Opening Comment Fri, 20 Nov 2009 06:23 GMT
- Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.19.09 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:12 GMT
| LastWeek | Present | %Long | Change: Open Interest | Signals | Chart Links | |
| EUR/USD | -1.39 | -1.05 | 49.0% | 4.1% | bullish | View Chart Now |
| GBP/USD | -1.04 | -1.15 | 46.0% | 8.3% | bullish | View Chart Now |
| USD/JPY | 2.68 | 4.93 | 83.0% | 14.3% | bearish | View Chart Now |
| USD/CHF | 2.87 | 2.00 | 67.0% | -5.3% | bearish | View Chart Now |
| USD/CAD | 1.85 | 1.28 | 56.0% | -6.7% | bearish | View Chart Now |
| GBP/JPY | 1.23 | 1.65 | 62.0% | -0.6% | bearish | View Chart Now |
The SSI is reported Every Thursday at DailyFX.com and twice every trading day inside DailyFX PLUS.
In 2006 and 2007, the SSI signalled a EUR/USD rally from 1.26 until signalling a reversal near 1.60.
Found out more in the DailyFX Forum.
Euro Forecast Flips to Bearish Against Dollar
EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.04 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 43.4% higher than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 24.8% lower than yesterday and 6.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% weaker than yesterday and 4.6% above its monthly average. The sharp gain in long positions gives us contrarian signal that the Euro/US Dollar could soon continue lower.
British Pound Forecast Points to Short-term Pullback
GBPUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.60 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 20.5% higher than yesterday and 8.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.2% lower than yesterday and 4.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% weaker than yesterday and 6.5% above its monthly average. The sharp gain in long positions gives us a contrarian signal that the GBPUSD could soon continue lower.
Japanese Yen Likely to Rally Further versus US Dollar
USDJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.90 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.83 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.7% higher than yesterday and 53.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.3% lower than yesterday and 25.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.5% stronger than yesterday and 26.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
Swiss Franc Outlook Turns Bearish
USDCHF – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.98 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.50 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 22.5% lower than yesterday and 6.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 37.1% higher than yesterday and 18.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.2% weaker than yesterday and 2.1% above its monthly average. The very clear overnight shift towards short positions gives us contrarian signal that the USDCHF could reverse higher.
Canadian Dollar Likely to Pull Back against US Dollar
USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.69 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.9% lower than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.5% higher than yesterday and 15.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 2.5% above its monthly average. The noteworthy overnight shift towards USDCAD shorts gives us contrarian signal that the USDCAD could continue higher.
British Pound Forecast to Decline versus Japanese Yen
GBPJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 24.0% higher than yesterday and 37.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.1% lower than yesterday and 23.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.6% stronger than yesterday and 6.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
Weekly Overview
Technicals
US Dollar Forecast To Bounce off of Range Lows
Discuss the SSI with DailyFX Analysts in the Forex Forum
Our sentiment-based forex trading strategies may soon go long the US Dollar versus the British Pound and other key counterparts, as a sudden shift in sentiment points to further near-term gains for the US currency. Traders had previously bought aggressively into USD declines—giving us contrarian signal to buy the Euro/US Dollar. Yet the most recent turnaround leaves crowds pointing in exactly the opposite direction, and the abrupt shift leaves scope for further dollar pullbacks. The notable exception is the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair, where our contrarian sentiment strategy points to further Japanese Yen rallies (USDJPY losses).
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