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DailyFX Home / Forex Technical Analysis / Daily Technical Analysis

What to Expect from Global Markets Through Year End

By , Chief Currency Strategist

26 November 2015 04:02 GMT

Talking Points:

• Volume drop in US markets during the Thanksgiving holiday, but it holds globally - volatility though is uniform

• Heading into December, expectations for gains will be strong in global markets; but risks are extreme

• Event risk like the FOMC decision can override seasonal gains across SPX, DAX, NKY and the Shanghai

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Seasonal studies don't just insinuate US equities are well positioned for year-end gains, the past decade shows a tendency to strong gains for capital markets the world over. That only furthers the dangerous circumstances in the the financial market as complacency finds deeper hold over speculative decisions. Given the level of exposure investors currently maintain and the near-certainty of a liquidity squeeze, the volatility risk from key event risk should urge greater caution - not confidence. Through the Thanksgiving-sapped remainder of this week, speculative depth will hold up across global market hubs; but the real test comes through the coming month when bulls are at their most confident. We gauge global seasonal expectations against heavy event risk in today's Strategy Video.

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Elliott Wave Bias Table

Symbol S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 Chart Links

EUR/USD Rebounds; Above 1.0760 Would Indicate Important Change


EUR/USD Rebounds; Above 1.0760 Would Indicate Important Change

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses

-Since November NFP, EUR/USD has traded lower but in a series of overlapping waves. Momentum is lacking on the move lower as well. Above 1.0760 would indicate that ‘something else’ (as in EUR/USD is no longer a one-way train lower) is going on.

-SSI is positive, although just 1.09 as of 12/1. A flip to negative would be bullish (I prefer to wait for a daily close on the other side +-1.5).

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