Elliott Wave Bias Table

The bearish count remains valid as the EURUSD is quietly making lower highs and lower lows. Still, we need a break below 1.4625 in order to eliminate bullish alternate counts. Until then, it is certainly possible that consolidation since 1.5066 is simply a triangle (count in red). Bears can move risk down to 1.4940. Potential short term resistance is at 1.4870/85.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

The bigger picture pattern is constructive. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008. The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above). One possibility from 88.00 is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35. A larger B or 2nd wave may be complete as a double zigzag from 92.35. The more time that this correction consumes, the less confidence I have in the count. Bulls need to see an impulsive rally from current levels.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

The GBPUSD has been in a consolidation mode since late May. Price has traded in a wide 1300 pip range since then in what could be corrective (continuation of strength) or distributive (reversal of strength). Structurally, movements since 1.7050 appear corrective (3 waves), which would suggest a triangle, flat, or leading diagonal (all patterns favor lower prices from here). The support line mentioned in recent days has been broken and gives scope to further losses. A break below 1.6250 is expected with 1.6880 remaining intact. Focus then shifts to 1.6130 and 1.6030. 1.6550/80, 1.6600 and 1.6680 are short term resistance levels.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (just as the inverse). The bullish count remains valid against the low (1.0030) (Friday morning spike would be a truncation) but the triangle count is also valid (red letters). Risk can be moved to 1.0120. 1.0250 is potential resistance.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

I am showing the daily chart today to convey how bullish I am on the USDCAD. A double zigzag decline from 1.3068 is considered complete and the pair has carved out a solid 1-2 base (5 up and 3 down) since the October low. A wave ii low is in place at 1.0415, which places the pair in wave iii higher targeting a break of 1.0875 followed by Fibonacci extensions of 1.1090 and 1.1500. Price ideally remains above 1.0610 but a drop under would expose support at 1.0590 and 1.0545.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

I’ve speculated in recent days that an important top is in place stating “having exceeded and reversed from above .9334, the minimum expectations for wave .v of v of C has been met…respect the potential for a double top (which would be confirmed on a drop below .8900), especially when considering divergent momentum readings and patterns of other USD crosses. A short term head and shoulders top could be forming (circled area). Coming under .9200 would confirm that short term pattern.” The AUDUSD has dropped beneath that level price tested 5th wave channel support this morning. More importantly, there are 5 waves down from .9410, confirming that a top is in place. Sell rallies. Resistance is from .9190 to .9275 with .9220/30 possibly possessing the most supply.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

Since the top at .7640, NZDUSD decline are impulsive (5 waves) and rallies are corrective (3 waves). The larger trend has turned down and the objective is below .7080 (and probably much lower). Sell rallies into .7330-.7405 against .7530.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.