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British Pound Still Bullish Above 1.9461

Tuesday, 10 June 2008 16:00:28 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

The GBPUSD's decline today is most likely a wave 2 correction.  Expectations are for a wave 3 advance to  begin soon.  The minimum objective is 1.9850 but 2.0190 is likely.  This bullish setup is valid as long as price is above 1.9460.

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The decline from 2.1160 was in 5 waves (not labeled) and is wave A in a large 3 wave correction.  Since then, wave B of the correction has been unfolding.  This B wave is taking the form of either a triangle or flat.  In the case of a triangle (red labels), price will exceed 1.9850 and probably test 2.02.  In the case of a flat, price will exceed 2.04 before reversing lower.

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The 15 minute chart shows that the rally from 1.9461 was in 5 waves, therefore a bullish bias is warranted against that level.  The decline can be counted as a 3 wave correction.  The correction is deep, as 2nd waves often are.  Second waves are deep in order to convince the majority of market participants that the trend is back down.  This sets the stage for the strong rally that occurs in wave 3. 

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