Power Course Instructor’s Response:
You are going about this in the right way...well done.
Your usage of long wicks and Fib levels is on the mark. The pair has been making lower highs and lower lows since mid-November so a downtrend is definitely in play. Should it trade to its former low of 1.6711 on January 26, the trade would look pretty good.
The above being said, try drawing a new Fib line as suggested on the chart below and see if that sheds any new light on the trade analysis. While the Fib line that is certainly valid, a more recent Fib line will give an indication of entries that may occur on an earlier time table.
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