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Forex Traders buy US Dollars on Treasury Bailout Hopes, Losses Likely
Thursday, 25 September 2008 14:15:50 GMT  |  David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst
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Our forex trading positioning measure shows that the crowd continues to sell the British Pound against the US dollar on speculation that the Treasury bailout will be approved and boost the American currency. Yet our SSI is typically a contrarian indicator, and such developments would suggest that further GBPUSD rallies are likely. Speculation that the proposed bailout will boost stock markets has likewise led many to buy the US dollar against the Japanese Yen, and this likewise gives signal that the USDJPY could fall on increasingly one-sided sentiment. 

GBPUSDBritish Pound Forecast to Gain Against US Dollar
EURUSDForex Trading Crowd Sells Indecisive, Further Volatility Likely
USDJPYJapanese Yen Likely to Gain as Forex Crowds Buy USDJPY
USDCADCanadian Dollar Forecast to Rally Against US Dollar
USDCHFForex Traders Remain Bearish, Signal Rallies in the USDCHF

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While the SSI is available once a week on DailyFX.com, you can receive SSI readings twice a day in DailyFX Plus Forex Intraday Trading Signals

 

The SSI sought a EURUSD rally since 1.26 and was signaling a reversal around 1.60. Find our more in the DailyFX Forex Forum

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

 
 
Have any further questions about the SSI and forex positioning data? Ask the author David Rodríguez on our forex forum.
 
We love getting feedback on our reports. Tell us how we’re doing: E-mail the author of this report at drodriguez@dailyfx.com.
 
 
For information on an FXCM Managed Account that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Program at: http://www.fxcmmanagedaccounts.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

 

 

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