This week we were up by 49 pips in
capital gain and nearly $150 on interest received.
We closed a short position in the
EUR/USD to reduce our exposure to next Thursday’s ECB meeting. The ECB is widely
expected to hold its key interest rate at 3.75 percent but a lot of uncertainty
remains regarding the next ECB rate change. The euro zone inflation remains high
and the European Central Bank will do what is necessary to ensure stable prices,
Jean Claude Trichet said in a interview published on
Monday
We also initiated a short position in
the Japanese yen against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan ended its monetary
policy meeting on Monday and the central bank members unanimously decided to
keep rates unchanged.
What Are We Currently
Long?
NZD/USD
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/HKD
USD/JPY
Interest Rate
Ranking
|
Interest
rates |
High
Yielders |
Low
Yielders | ||||
|
3
Month Libor
Rates |
NZD 7.83% |
AUD 6.40% |
GBP 5.54% |
HKD 4.14% |
CHF 2.28% |
JPY 0.61% |
The Interest rate used to benchmark the currency basket is the 3 months Libor rate
Weekly Profit & Loss Analysis:
Open
Positions Stop
Price Profit & Loss
( 3/27/2007 to 4/10/2007
) Capital
Gains Interest
Received LONG
NZD/USD 0.6485 + 103
pips $30.80 LONG
AUD/USD 0.7460 + 121 pips $11.90 LONG GBP/USD 1.8965 - 16
pips $2.80 SHORT
EUR/USD 1.3501 - 110
pips $39.20 LONG
USD/CHF 1.1854 - 64
pips $58.10 LONG
USD/HKD 7.7899 15
pips $9.10
The Interest Received is the dollar amount received per each 100K lot left open at 5:00 PM ET.


Average Annual Excess Return: 11.04%
Annualized Standard Deviation:
8.99%
Sharpe Ratio: 1.23
Additional
Information
In an ever changing world, making
profitable carry trades* (definition below) are not as easy as they use to
be. Therefore we have created a
dynamic carry basket that changes when the monetary policy outlook for a central
bank changes or if there is significant event risk ahead. Follow the performance of the DailyFX
Dynamic Carry Trade Basket What is Carry
Trade All that is needed to understand the
carry trade concept is a basic knowledge of foreign exchange and interest rates
differentials. Money shifts from around the world in seek of the highest yield
and the benefit of trading currencies is that you are dealing with countries
that have interest rates, which are charged or received every single day. If you
are positioned on the side of positive carry, you have the right to earn that
interest, which can be quite lucrative over time. Protective
Stop-Loss Substantial gains made from interest
rate differentials provide undeniable evidence that the carry trade strategy has
been very successful over the past few years. Still, this strategy involves
significant risks and an adequate protective stop is required. We are using a
protective stop-loss equivalent to five times the average true
range. Position
Sizing Our position size varies according to
each currency volatility. Generally, the more volatile the currency is, the
fewer lots we trade. For example, let's assume you have $10,000 and you are
trading 10K lots, you decide to limit your risk per trade to 3% or $300 and the
90 days average true range for the EURUSD is 100 pips. In this case, if you go
long EUR/USD you could buy 3 lots, since ($10000 * 3%) divided by (0.0100*10K) =
3 lots. In case the final result is not an integer you should always rounded it
down to limit your exposure.