Our Short EUR/USD call last week was on the money. We pointed out that there was a triple top forming and our preferred strategy was to short the EUR/USD (at the time, it was trading at 1.4815), lock in profits on half of the position at 1.4685 (target it). Our second target was 1.4425 and the EUR/USD low last week was only 12 pips above that at 1.4437. For those who are short, you should remain short with 1.4625 as your stop.
EUR/USD
Our Short EUR/USD call last week was on the money. We pointed out that there was a triple top forming and our preferred strategy was to short the EUR/USD (at the time, it was trading at 1.4815), lock in profits on half of the position at 1.4685 (target it). Our second target was 1.4425 and the EUR/USD low last week was only 12 pips above that at 1.4437.
For those who are short, you should remain short with 1.4625 as your stop.
Trading Strategy
1. Stay short EUR/USD (now 1.4500) with a stop around 1.4625. Lock in profits on half of the at 1.4375 move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 3 times risk at 1.4125
2. Buy EUR/USD on a break of 1.4650 with a stop below 1.4500. Lock in profits on half of the position at 1.4800, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 3 times risk at 1.5100.
Arguments for Further Weakness
1. Three Outside Down Formation on Daily Charts 2. Spinning Top 3. Price Below Shoulder Line of former Inverse Head and Shoulders 4. Triple Top on Daily Charts 5. Price Below 100-day SMA 6. Price Below First Standard Deviation Bollinger Band on Daily Charts
GBP/USD
Our Short GBP/USD short call last week was on the money. We pointed out that a shooting star on the weekly chart indicated that further losses were likely. Therefore our preferred strategy was to stay short the GBP/USD (at the time, it was trading at 1.9760) and lock in profits on half of the position at 1.9615 (target hit). Our second target was 1.9350 and the GBP/USD low last week was only 40 pips above that at 1.9389.
For those who are short, you should remain short, but tighten yours stop to 1.9550 to lock in more profits.
GBP/USD Trading Strategy
1. Stay Short (now 1.9490), move stop down to 1.9550. Lock in profits on half of the position at 1.9430, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 1.9310.
2. Buy after a daily close above 1.9550 with a stop below 1.9460 stop. Lock in profits on half of the position at 1.9640, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 1.9820.
Arguments for Continued Weakness
1. Identical Three on Daily Chart 2. Dark Cloud Cover on Weekly Chart
Arguments for a Rebound
1. Double Bottom? 2. Spinning Top on Daily Chart? 3. Price Holding the 100-Week SMA
USD/JPY
USD/JPY traded within a tight range throughout the past week, which means that our long and short USD/JPY strategies would have worked. However the moves on both sides stopped a few pips short of our targets. Range trading continues to be the predominant theme in the currency pair. USD/JPY Trading Strategy
1. Long USDJPY (now 106.71) with a stop at 105.50 (1/21, 1/22 and 1/31 low). Lock in profits on half of the position at 107.85, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 109.90 (50-SMA)
2. Short (now 106.71) with a stop at 108.00. Lock in profits on half of the position at 105.50, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 101.70.
Arguments for a Bottom
1. Long Legged Doji on Weekly Chart 2. Triangle Formation on Weekly Chart 3. Three Inside Up Formation on Daily Chart
1. Bearish Harami Formation on Daily Charts 2. Three Inside Down on Daily Charts
AUD/USD
Last week, our long AUD/USD Trading Strategy was stopped out for -48 pips. However, those flipping short on the close below 0.9040 would have hit the first target of 0.8992 AND the second target of 0.8890.
AUD/USD Trading Strategy
1. Stay long (now at 0.9045) with a stop at 0.8950. Sell half of the position at 0.9135, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 0.9315
2. Short on a close below 0.8950 with a stop at 0.9100. Lock in profits on half of the position at 0.8800, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 0.8500
Arguments for Further Gains on a Short Term Basis
1. Strong Bullish Candle After Doji 2. Moving Average Support on Daily Charts 3. Price above First Standard Deviation Bollinger Band on Daily Charts
Arguments for Fading Strength
1. Identical Three Crows on Daily Chart 2. Dark Cloud Cover on Weekly Chart
NZD/USD
NZD/USD Trading Strategy
1. Stay long (now at 0.7888) with a stop at 0.7775. Sell half of the position at 0.8000, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 0.8220
2. Short on a close below 0.7850 with a stop at 0.7935. Lock in profits on half of the position at 0.7765, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 0.7595
1. Dark Cloud Cover on Weekly Charts 2. Consolidation, 3 Consecutive Dojis
USD/CAD
USD/CAD Trading Strategy
1. Short now (1.0007) with a stop at 1.0120. Buy back half of the position at 0.9894, move stop on rest to breakeven target 0.9668
2. Long on a close above 1.0120 with a stop at 1.0000. Sell half of the position at 1.0240, move stop on rest to breakeven, targeting 1.0500
1. Three Outside Down on Weekly Chart 2. Trendline Break on Weekly Chart
1. Triple Bottom on Daily Charts, Matching Lows