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A Decline In U.S. Durable Goods Orders Would Validate EUR/USD Technicals

Wednesday, 27 August 2008 06:54:35 GMT  |  John Rivera, Currency Analyst

U.S. durable goods orders are expected to have remained flat after a 0.8% gain in June. Meanwhile, the ex-transportation reading is projected to decline 0.7%.

 

Durables Goods Orders (12:30GMT; 8:30EDT)	Durables Ex Transportation (12:30GMT; 8:30EDT)
Expected:                      0.0%	Expected:                     -0.7%
Previous:                       0.8%	Previous:                      2.0%

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. durable goods orders are expected to have remained flat after a 0.8% gain in June. Meanwhile, the ex-transportation reading is projected to decline 0.7%. The stripped out reading is a truer reading on the prevailing demand as it removes the volatile component that can be skewed by airplane purchases. The rapid slowdown that the Europe and Asia is experiencing should suppress orders as domestic growth continues to be hampered by high credit costs and a prolonged housing slump. The technical outlook is calling for a move higher for the pair or sideways price action, which is the most likely outcome unless demand has build off of last month’s gains.

 

Technical Outlook

3 wave movements dominate right now.  The rally from 1.4631 is in 3 waves as is the decline from 1.4908.  These waves are most likely waves A and B of either a flat or triangle (yes, wave B can come under the origin of A in a triangle).  The path for the next few days should be higher in wave C of either the triangle or flat.  1.4750 is resistance.

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