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- Friday, 16 October 2009 23:05:12 GMT Risk Appetite Stalls But the Dollar and Dow Maintain Trend Through Week's End
- Friday, 16 October 2009 21:47:18 GMT Market Volatility Consolidates following Disappointing Earnings (Forex Video)
- Friday, 16 October 2009 10:35:56 GMT British Pound Retraces, Euro Grapples with 1.50 Against US Dollar
- Friday, 16 October 2009 16:02:03 GMT Will A Pullback In Equities Sink The Euro?
- Friday, 16 October 2009 05:27:00 GMT Euro Down Ahead of Trade Data, Markets to Gauge Currency Impact on Exports (Euro Open)
- Friday, 16 October 2009 08:38:27 GMT Tech Talk 10.16.2009
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 22:59:48 GMT The Dollar and Dow See Little Follow Through, Yet Currencies Produce Extreme Volatility (Forex Video)
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 15:41:32 GMT GBP/USD Advance Slows at Staunch Resistance Creating Scalping Opportunity
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 14:30:15 GMT British Pound Forecast to Rally further on Forex Sentiment
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 06:51:38 GMT New Zealand Dollar Gains as Inflation Outperforms But Rate Hikes Look Suspect (Euro Open)
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 18:24:03 GMT US Dollar Initially Drops on Indications the Fed Could Expand MBS Purchases
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 22:24:51 GMT Dollar Follows the Dow's Push Above 10,000 Instead of Strong Retail Sales (Forex Video)
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 05:36:26 GMT US Dollar Drops to New Low as Chinese Export Figures Boost Risk Appetite (Euro Open)
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 21:55:42 GMT Dollar, Markets Maintain Their Sentiment-Based Momentum Despite Data (Forex Video)
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 16:50:57 GMT Defined Trading Levels Makes USD/JPY Attractive For Scalpers
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 04:22:35 GMT US Dollar Holds Up Despite Asian Stock Gains, UK CPI and German ZEW on Tap (Euro Open)
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 05:28:14 GMT Risk Aversion and Geopolitical Tensions Creep In (Opening Comment)
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 02:27:39 GMT Declining U.K. Consumer Prices Would Validate Bearish Pound Technical Outlook
- Monday, 12 October 2009 21:51:52 GMT Traders Leaning on the Dollar as its Dominance Continues to Falter (Forex Video)
- Monday, 12 October 2009 14:50:59 GMT Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Range Likely to Hold on Low Volatility
Euro-Zone retail sales are expected to have fallen 0.4% in October which would be the second consecutive month that consumption contracted. The combination of the credit crisis and the economy entering a recession has led consumers to retrench as their confidence sinks.
Fundamental Outlook
Euro-Zone retail sales are expected to have fallen 0.4% in October which would be the second consecutive month that consumption contracted. The combination of the credit crisis and the economy entering a recession has led consumers to retrench as their confidence sinks. Declining domestic growth and the prospect of an ECB rate cut tomorrow may lead to the Euro trading heavy. Technical analysis is presenting both a bearish and bullish case as the current wedge formation may signal a breakout. However, dour fundamental data would lend support to the bearish contention which is calling for a drop below 1.2330. Price action could remain muted with the potential event risk of an ECB rate decision looming.
Technical Outlook
One can make both a bullish and bearish argument for the euro / dollar going forward. From the bearish perspective, the euro / dollar could still drop below 1.2330 in a 5th wave terminal thrust from a triangle, which is in its final stages. The triangle labeling is what I am showing this morning. In the case of the triangle, wave e of the advance should end this week. Resistance begins at 1.28 and extends as high as 1.30. From the bullish perspective, the rallies from 1.2330 could be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. While not pretty, the count is valid and most big rallies begin after formation of a large base.
For More Technical Analysis Visit the Daily Technical Report
To discuss this report contact John Rivera, Currency Analyst: jrivera@fxcm.com
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