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AUD/CAD Short-Term Technical Outlook (update)
Tuesday, 16 September 2008 11:06:53 GMT  |  David Song, Currency Analyst
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After failing to break above 0.8750, the AUDCAD has come under heavy selling pressures, and has moved back within the downward trending channel.

Currency Pair: AUD/CAD
Short-Term Bias: Short
Chart: 15 Min Charts

Analysis Update

AUDCAD2_9-16

                After finding near-term support around 0.8408(21.4% Fib level of 0.8275-0.8895), the AUDCAD has bounced back to hold within the downward trending channel. After spiking above 0.8450, the pair looks to be losing momentum, but and may hold its current range between 0.8406(21.4% Fib level of 0.8275-0.8895) and 0.8511(38.2% Fib level of 0.8275-0.8895) throughout the US session. However, the downward trend in the 120 SMA has led us to hold our bearish outlook for the pair, and we expect the AUDCAD to break below its current range over the next few days. However, the fundamental event risks scheduled for the next 24 hours may call for a change in our outlook.

 

Analysis

AUDCAD1_9-16

                 After failing to break above 0.8750, the AUDCAD has come under heavy selling pressures, and has moved back within the downward trending channel. The downward momentum is anticipated to lead the pair lower, but may we may see the aussie-loonie test 0.8408 (21.4% Fib level of 0.8275-0.8895) for support over the next few hours.

                The downturn in the 120 SMA has led us to hold a bearish outlook in the near term, but we may see a short-term correction unfold over the next few days if the pair is able to find support near 0.8408 (21.4% Fib level of 0.8275-0.8895). However, if the pair breaks below this level, we expect price action to work its way lower to the 8/17 low of 0.8217. In fact, we may see price action congest near 0.8408 (21.4% Fib level of 0.8275-0.8895), before making a break to the downside. Be sure to check out other Technical Reports from DailyFX for additional information on the major currency pairs.

To contact the author of this article, please email: dsong@fxcm.com

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