There are few out there still holding out hopes that the US economy has not tipped into recession, as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has yet to confirm it. However, given the unexpected surge in the US unemployment rate today to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent and comments from Robert Hall, the economist who leads the NBER's business cycle dating committee, it appears that the bureau will do so within the next few weeks or months. Indeed, Mr. Hall said in an interview that the evidence of recession is "more than compelling" and that it was "conclusive" in his personal opinion. Mr. Hall went on to say that the reason why "the committee will wait is our concern with the real GDP part of the story, which is not yet completely in focus" and the need "to wait for more data on output."
