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US Dollar Firmer As Forex Breaks From Stock Performance
Thursday, 16 October 2008 03:09:38 GMT  |  Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
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Forex price action has continued to disengage from the strong correlation to stock performance that we identified last week. We initially noted that the US dollar had gained in spite of shaky US fundamentals as investors spooked by risky market conditions abandoned stocks and other higher-risk assets to flock to long-term US Treasury bonds. Indeed, EURUSD and the 30-year "Long" bond had exhibited an inverse correlation of over -80%. Current positioning seems to suggest the two assets are disengaging from one another: having peaked at -84% last week, the reading now stands at -74%. Indeed, the greenback has pared back gains in overnight trading all the while the Japanese Nikkei stock index lost -9.55% while exchanges in Hong Kong and Syndey slid nearly -7% apiece.

US Long Bond vs. EURUSD Spot:

10-15-08 bonds
Source: Bloomberg

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