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US Continuing Jobless Claims Reflect More Realistic Employment Picture Than Initial Claims
Wednesday, 31 December 2008 15:48:51 GMT  |  Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
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Upon first glance, the release of US initial jobless claims may appear rather optimistic as they fell 94,000 to 492,000 during the week ended December 27. However, this data is actually skewed because of the shortened holiday week and for what it's worth, employment reports specifically for the last two weeks of December should be ignored for this reason. Indeed, the surge in continuing jobless claims for the week ended December 20 provides a more accurate view of the US labor markets, as they rose to a fresh 26-year high of 4,506,000. Looking back at historical data, the steady climb in claims for unemployment benefits logically suggests that the unemployment rate for December will likewise jump upon release on January 9.

US Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly) vs. US Unemployment Rate (Monthly)
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Source: Bloomberg

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