Investors have increased the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75bp at its meeting this upcoming Wednesday.
On Friday, 92% of traders had bet that the Fed would cut rates down to 1.00% with 8.0% betting on a cut to 1.25%. A shift over the weekend has seen sentiment move towards a more aggressive policy. Today there is a 74% chance of 50bp cut and a 26% probability that the committee will cut to an all-time low of 0.75%.
The last time the overnight rate had a target of 1.0% was in the 12 months between June 2003 and 2004 with the target raised to 1.25% two months later.