The auction of Lehman CDS contracts will be a major event today as it will determine the level of what will be the biggest CDS payout to date. The proximity of this may have been a big reason why credit markets have remained frozen despite the considerable policy interventions. Counterparty losses could be considerable; Lehman's $128 billion of bonds were trading on Thursday at an average of 13 cents on the dollar, suggesting credit swap sellers may have to pay 87 cents on the dollar to the buyers of default protection. More than 350 banks and investors have signed up to settle credit-default swaps tied to Lehman. Earlier this week the value for bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were priced as low as 8.5 cents on the dollar, at most, because the debt is backed by the government.
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