German September retail sales fell 2.3% m/m, much weaker than our forecast of 1.3% m/m and with August numbers revised down to 1.9% m/m from 3.2% m/m reported initially. Sales fell 0.1% q/q in Q3, which suggests a slight contraction in consumption and backs expectations for a negative GDP number that quarter. Sales were up an unadjusted 1.2% y/y, after -3.3% y/y in August. The weak number will only add further to arguments for a rate cut, with even mega hawk Weber now stressing the need for quick cuts if growth slows down.
Meanwhile, Italian September PPI dropped 0.5% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 7.3% y/y from a revised 8.4% y/y in the previous months. This was much lower than anticipated, which highlights once again that the rapid drop in energy prices is bringing inflation down much quicker than originally thought, which opens the way for the ECB to lower rates further.