- Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.18.10 Thu, 18 Mar 2010 10:37 GMT
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German October industrial production dropped 2.1% m/m, after already falling 3.3% m/m in September. The monthly decline is broadly in line with our median of -2.2% m/m and better than the 4.0% m/m drop we feared after the slump in manufacturing orders inflow. The breakdown showed manufacturing production down 2.2% m/m, after a drop of 3.6% m/m in September. Construction production dropped 3.0% m/m, after falling 3.0% m/m in the previous months. Production declined and unadjusted 3.8% y/y, after -1.8% y/y in September. The renewed decline confirms that the German economy continues to contract in the fourth quarter of the year and forward looking indicators indicate that there will be no quick turnaround. Data will support calls for a widening of the government's stimulus package with overall growth likely to contract at least 0.8% next year.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD showed little reaction to German industrial production, which fell 2.1% m/m. The number was generally in line with expectations, leaving EUR/USD little changed at 1.2870. EUR/USD consolidated gains after it ran in to good option related offers at intra-day highs of 1.2915. Large size option strikes are noted at both 1.2900 and 1.2905 today, which should see ranges narrow as we move towards today's 15:00GMT N.Y. cut.
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