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Australian Trade Surplus Shrink As Exports Falter

Thursday, 08 January 2009 01:50:50 GMT

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst

Australia’s Trade Balance surplus narrowed more than economists expected in November, printing at A$1.45 billion. The result was driven by a sharp 3.6% drop in exports, the first negative reading in nine months. Looking Australia’s top trading partners, shipments to the UK were hardest hit, declining by a whopping -46.5%. Exports to China and the US also saw double-digit drops, falling -18.7% and 10.7%. Rounding out the top six markets that absorb well over half of all Australian exports, shipments to New Zealand fell -7.8% while those to India declined -3.9%, with only Japan seeing positive growth of a meager 2.8%. Waning global demand has seen business confidence fall to record lows and put upward pressure on unemployment. This will surely weigh on disposable incomes and prompt precautionary saving in the months ahead, threatening the larger antipode with the possibility of recession. The Reserve Bank of Australia has aggressively cut interest rates by a full 3% since September and is likely to continue to do so in an attempt to check the slide in economic growth. Traders are pricing in a 0.75% cut when Glenn Stevens and company announce policy on February 2nd.

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