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UK Confidence Improves But Holds Near Multi-Decade Low

Friday, 29 August 2008 11:35:27 GMT  |  David Song, Currency Analyst

Fundamental Headlines

• U.S. Pares its Arsenal in White-Collar Crime Fight – Wall Street Journal
• Lehman Is Poised to Pare Up to 1,500 Jobs – Wall Street Journal
• Japan Offers Economic Stimulus Package – Financial Times
• Oil Rises in New York as Gustav Threatens U.S. Gulf Platforms – Bloomberg
• London Luxury-Home Prices Post First Drop Since 2003 – Bloomberg

·    GBPUSD – U.K. consumer confidence improved to -36 in August, but remains near the multi-decade low reading of -39 in the previous month. Amid the uptick in confidence, market participants continue to hold a dour outlook for the UK economy as inflation remains high amid fading employment demands. The lack of stability in the housing and financial sector may continue to fuel recessionary fears for Europe’s second largest economy, and conditions may only get worse as consumers deal with higher living costs. For more news and resources, visit our GBP/USD Forum.

·    EURUSD – The Euro-Zone CPI estimate fell more than expected to 3.8% from 4.1% in July on the back of falling oil prices. Lower oil prices helped the consumer confidence index to inch higher to -19 from -20, while the services index unexpectedly improve to 3 from 1 in July. European businesses continued to downgrade growth expectations as  business confidence slipped to -0.33 from -0.21, leading the industrial confidence index to inch lower to -10 from -8. Meanwhile, the economic outlook took the biggest plunge as it slipped to 88.8 from 89.5. For more news and resources, visit our EUR/USD Forum.

·    USDJPY – Headline inflation for the world’s second largest economy rose more than expected, exceeding 2.0% for the first time in 10 years, driven by higher food and energy prices . The core measure of inflation, which exludes fresh food, surged to 2.4% from 1.9%, while core inflation in Tokyo inched lower to 1.5% from 1.6% in June. Meanwhile, retail sales increased to 1.9%, which was larger than the 1.3% rise anticipated by economists, fueled by an increase in gasoline receipts. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the USD/JPY Forum.

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