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Improving Labor Picture Has BoE Optimistic For Recovery

Wednesday, 17 June 2009 12:13:45 GMT  |  John Rivera, Currency Analyst

The U.K. economy lost 39,300 jobs in May which was far less than the 60,000 that was expected and an improvement from the 49,600 lost the month prior. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% which also shy of the 4.9% that economist forecasted which continued the trend of better than expected fundamentals from the U.K.

Fundamental Headlines

• White House Details Financial Revamp – Wall Street Journal
• Reserve Fears Keep Dollar on Defensive – Financial Times
• Rise in Agricultural Commodity Prices Seen Easing – Financial Times
• China, Russia to Use Each Other's Currencies in Trade, Rely Less on Dollar  – Bloomberg
• Biggest U.S. Health-Care Overhaul in 40 Years May Emerge in 45-Day Sprint – Bloomberg

EURUSD – The Euro-zone trade balance surplus unexpectedly widened to 2.7 billion from 1.8 billion as the imports declined faster than exports. Domestic demand continues to remain weak despite improving confidence in the region and signs that the recession is abating. Economist had forecasted a 1.5 billion deficit as expectations were that we could demand for exports remain weak. Meanwhile, construction activity rose 0.6% for a consecutive month in April adding to the signs that a recovery is imminent. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.

GBPUSD –  The U.K. economy lost 39,300 jobs in May which was far less than the 60,000 that was expected and an improvement from the 49,600 lost the month prior. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% which also shy of the 4.9% that economist forecasted which continued the trend of better than expected fundamentals from the U.K. The minutes from the last policy meeting of the BoE showed that voted 9-0 to keep rates unchanged as they are becoming optimistic that a recovery is imminent. The central bank points to signs that the housing market is stabilizing and a slowing of the decline in consumer consumption. However, they still see the credit supply outlook as remaining constrained which could limit the scope of the recovery. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.

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