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Euro-Zone Trade Deteriorates, Speculation for Rate Cuts Accelerate

Thursday, 23 October 2008 10:44:48 GMT

Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

10-23 FXH1

Fundamental Headlines

Goldman to Cut 10% of Jobs as Downsizing Wave Grows – Wall Street Journal
Currencies in Turmoil; Dow Nears Its 5-Year Low – Wall Street Journal
Sony slashes forecast on strong yen – Financial Times
Sweden Cuts Key Rate to Stimulate Lending, Economy– Bloomberg
Credit Suisse Reports SF1.7 Billion Third-Quarter Trading Loss– Bloomberg

GBPUSD – Retail spending in the U.K. fell 0.4% in September after rising 1.1% in the previous month as the breakdown of the report showed that discretionary spending on shoes and clothing fell 2.3%, followed by a 2.0% decline in household goods. Meanwhile, the annual reading slipped to a two year low of 1.8% from 3.3%, which suggests that domestic demands may weaken further as Europe’s second largest economy slips into a recession. Meanwhile, the BBA index showed that mortgage approvals increased to 23.4K from 21.3K in August, while mortgage lending increased to GBP 3.6B from 2.1B. Despite the rebound from a record low, falling home prices paired with the lack of stability in the credit market suggests that economic activity may remain subdued for a protracted period of time, and may push the BoE to lower borrowing costs further in the near-term. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.

EURUSD – The Euro-Zone current account deficit widened to -8.4B from a revised reading of -1.8B in July, indicating that economic activity is weakening at a faster pace as demands from the global economy falter. In addition, industrial new orders fell 1.2% in September despite expectations for a 0.5% gain. On an annual basis, new orders fell to -6.6% from a revised reading of 2.9% in July. The downturn in the major economies around the world have certainly stoked growth fears for the ECB despite its one and only mandate to ensure price stability, and has raised speculation that the central bank will continue to ease policy further as growth prospects deteriorate. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.


10-23 FXH2

Related Articles:
Dollar Faces An Expected 50bp Rate Cut And Recession Confirmation
British Pound Trades Heavy After Drop in Retail Sales, Dollar at the Mercy of Risk Appetite

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