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ECB To Ease Policy Further as Price Pressures Alleviate

Wednesday, 26 November 2008 10:52:00 GMT

Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

11-26 FXH1
Fundamental Headlines

• As Prices Slide, Oil Firms Make Tough Calls and Conserve Cash – Wall Street Journal
• Retail Downturn Rains on Macy's Parade – Wall Street Journal
• Rio chairman defends group’s debt position – Financial Times
• China Slashes Lending Rate to Support Slowing Economy – Bloomberg
• Toyota Suffers First Credit Rating Cut in 10 Years Amid Slump – Bloomberg


• GBPUSD
– The preliminary GDP reading for the U.K. showed that the economy contracted 0.5% in the third quarter, which was inline with the advanced growth reading last month. Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth was confirmed at 0.3% for 2008 despite a downward revision in net exports. The breakdown of the report showed that exports fell 0.3%, while imports increased to 0.1% from an initial reading of -0.5%. In addition, private consumption fell to -0.2% from an advanced reading of -0.1% to record is biggest decline since 1995, while government spending increased to 1.0% from 0.5%. Weakening demands paired with the downturn in the financial market has certainly take a toll on Europe’s second largest economy, and conditions may only get worse in 2009 as the economy heads into a recession. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.

• EURUSD
– Import price in Germany fell at a record pace in October to lower the annual rate to 2.9% from 7.6% in September. Falling oil prices led import price inflation to slip 3.6% from the previous month, which was the biggest monthly decline since recordkeeping began in 1962. Alleviating price pressures should allow the European Central Bank to ease policy further at the December 4th policy meeting, and may continue to lower borrowing costs well into the next year as the economy heads into a recession. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.11-26 FXH2

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