daily technicals

The world is enamored with US dollars and Japanese Yen.  Channel support for EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest a potential end (at least temporarily) to this dynamic.

There is a support line at current price.  If the line holds, then the EURUSD may finally form some sort of bottom and begin a rally that carries price above 1.3773.  Until the EURUSD turns up, the very bearish wave iii of 3 count remains valid.   

Remaining below 103 keeps the bearish trend intact.  The alternate gives scope to a push above 103.05 and a test of the 61.8% at 104.15.  Ideally, the USDJPY remains below 102.46.

The GBPUSD fell below 1.6775, negating the bullish bias.  The pair is sitting just above channel support and RSI is oversold as well as divergent.  This is the environment that produces bottoms.   

Even with the push through 1.15, this expanded flat count remains valid.  Under the above count, a USDCHF decline would begin near current price and end below 1.11 in the next several weeks.   

The USDCAD managed to register a 3+ year high today.  In looking at the very short term structure, an expanded flat count (same as USDCHF) is possible from 1.2132, which leaves the USDCAD vulnerable to weakness from close to current price.  The position of daily RSI (overbought and divergent) also warns of at least a pullback.

A triangle appears to be underway in the AUDUSD.  If so, then a small E wave would bring price back to .70 (approximately) before the pair drops to a new low.

The short term NZDUSD chart looks the same as the AUDUSD short term chart.  A triangle appears to be unfolding.  However, it is not clear where a triangle would fit within the larger pattern (shown above).  My long standing target of below .5927 has already been registered, so a larger recovery could be underway.  For now, it is best to stand aside with this pair.

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published 6-7 pm EST), Daily Technicals  every weekday morning (9-10 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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