daily technicals

Little has changed over the past 24 hours.  The EURUSD and GBPUSD may find demand at the bottom of their recent ranges.

Let’s look at where we have been to see where we could go.  The rally from 1.3877 is clearly in 3 waves but the decline from 1.4817 is in 3 waves to this point also.  This suggests to me that waves A and B of a triangle are complete.  In triangles, waves B and D (with the larger trend) are usually faster than waves A, C, and E.  That is the case here.  A flat may also be underway (in which wave C would end above 1.4817).  

The USDJPY is still in a range.  I favor the downside as long as price is below the trendline from the 110.71 top.  The 200 day SMA is sloping down (barely) and right at current price.  Whichever way this break goes; it should be violent.   

The continued decline in Cable makes the decline from 1.8675 in 7 waves, which is a double zigzag correction.  The GBPUSD is in the exact same position as the EURUSD; a flat or triangle is probably underway.  Nothing is ever certain, but the weight of evidence suggests to me that a larger correction of the decline from mid July is more likely than a bearish break here.  Evidence includes RSI (on this chart), and COT data.  

Surprise, surprise; the USDCHF looks like the EURUSD (but as the inverse).  If a triangle or flat is underway, then the USDCHF should roll over soon.    

This is a possible count.  Waves 4 and 5 are small relative to waves 1 through 3, but this is the best count I see right now.  If the decline from 1.0827 is an impulse, then the USDCAD should roll over from near current price (61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci levels).

The decline from .8524 has taken the form of an impulse, signaling that the larger trend is down.  Expect a rally (that should be corrective…the form of the rally will confirm or negate the bearish bias against .8524), and look for resistance beginning at .8101.   

The advance from .6435 is in 3 waves so the long term decline may be back underway.  It is also possible that a larger correction is underway that will end closer to .72.  Holding at the 61.8% the last few days favors the larger correction scenario.

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published 6-7 pm EST), Daily Technicals  every weekday morning (9-10 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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