• Euro Resistance at 1.4820 • Japanese Yen Could See 108.50 • British Pound Bullish Target at 1.9940 • Swiss Franc Decline is Corrective • Canadian Dollar Tests Parity Again • Australian Dollar Unclear • New Zealand Dollar Bounces From 200 day SMA
SEE A DESCRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE Join other traders in discussing Elliott Wave Theory on the DailyFX Forum. Commentary: The triangle is playing out as expected. The rally from 1.4365 is viewed as wave d within the a-b-c-d-e triangle. It appears that this leg of the triangle could extend. Potential resistance is at 1.4820 and 1.4900 (triangle resistance). The next leg of the triangle will be lower in wave e in order to complete larger wave 4 before the thrust higher in wave 5 through 1.50. Strategy: Flat Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency. Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the strong rally from 104.97 is probably a c wave that will complete a larger second wave as an expanded flat. If this count is correct, then price is expected to exceed 107.92 and resistance should be strong in the 108.33 area. We will look to return to a bearish bias following a rally through 107.92 (against 110.11) for a drop to our objectives that are below 100 (near 97).” The USDJPY rally has accelerated and price should soon exceed 107.92 and test resistance in the mid 108’s. Strategy: Flat Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency. Commentary: The decline from 2.1160 is wave A or 1 in a 3 or 5 wave bear cycle. The rally underway now is either wave B or 2. This countertrend rally should eventually challenge 2.0100 and maybe 2.0463 (61.8%). Since the advance is viewed as a countertrend rally, it should unfold in 3 waves (A-B-C) The rally underway now is wave A of that rally and potential resistance is the 161.8% extension of 1.9337-1.9644/1.9464 at 1.9960. Strategy: Bullish, against 1.9462, target 1.9940 Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency. Commentary: We still favor the idea that the USDCHF decline is extending as long as price is below 1.1122. Potential resistance for the rally from 1.0846 is at 1.1016 (61.8% of 1.1122-1.0846). The bias is bearish as long as price is below 1.1122. The decline from 1.1122 is probably a 5th wave (of larger 3) and an objective is where wave 5 equals 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 -- at 1.0553. Strategy: Bearish, against 1.1122, target 1.0560 Commentary: See yesterday’s commentary for longer term analysis. Near term, potential resistance is at 1.0128. If the rally from 1.0012 fails and gives way to a drop below 1.0012, then there would be 5 waves down from 1.0378. Expectations then would be for a corrective rally that we would look to sell into. Strategy: Flat Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency. Commentary: Please see our special report on the AUDUSD from last week, which presents the longer term outlook. The near term picture has been a mess recently….very choppy and difficult to manage risk. On the daily chart, the decline from .9400 could be the beginning of something much bigger (as discussed in the special report). This short term bearish count shown above is valid as long as price is below .8880. An alternate bullish count is in red and would become preffered if .8880 is exceeded. Strategy: Flat Commentary: Our contention remains that the decline is not complete. Price needs to come at least under .7365 (wave A) before we can begin looking for a bottom. Also, the decline from .7933 is wave iii of C so even a corrective rally in wave iv will give way to lower prices. A potential terminus for the decline is the 61.8% of 6639-.7891 at .7118. The bearish is bias as long as price is below .7933. Strategy: Bearish now, against .7933, target TBD MONTHLY, WEEKLY and DAILY TRENDS are determined by rolling pivots (4 month, 4 week, and 5 day). When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish. Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at jsaettele@dailyfx.com