Euro / US Dollar
The EURUSD is threatening to break higher and test the December 2008 high of 1.4723. A potential target is 1.5245, which is the 78.6% retracement of the decline from above 1.6000. This level intersects with potential trendline resistance at the end of September. 1.4200/80 is a support zone and bulls are firmly in control as long as price is above 1.4044.
British Pound / US Dollar
The GBPUSD is lagging other USD majors. A range has taken hold between 1.6660 and 1.6260. On intraday charts, the consolidation looks like an inverse head and shoulders. Trading through the top of the range exposes Fibonacci resistance at 1.6793 followed by the 2009 high at 1.7047. Looking out further, targets in the event of a breakout are round number resistance at 1.7500 and Fibonacci resistance at 1.8238 (intersects with potential trendline resistance at the end of September).
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
As the AUDUSD nears its 2009 high, the bearish short term pattern is called into question. Potential for a breakout exists as long as the AUDUSD is above .8212. A potential target is the 78.6% of the decline from .9856, just above .9000. This level intersects potential trendline resistance on the same day that the EURUSD resistance line intersects its 78.6% retracement (end of September). .8286 is short term support.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
As long as the NZDUSD is within the well defined upward sloping channel, calling for a top is a gamble. We were able to identify a short term top last week but the pair is now pressing against its 2009 high and looks poised to make new highs. A blow-off top looks likely and potential topping areas are .7206 (61.8% extension of .4890-.6601/.6149) and .7507 (78.6% retracement of decline from .8219).
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
After a false break through channel resistance, the USDJPY is back below both the 55 and 200 day moving averages. 95.00-96.00 is resistance.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The USDCAD rally from 1.0631 is in 3 waves. The form suggests that the trend remains down. A break to a new low would expose a Fibonacci extension at 1.0317, the 78.6% retracement at .9914 and the 100% extension of the 1.3068-1.0782 decline at .9444. This level intersects a potential channel line at the end of September. 1.0880 and 1.0950 are short term resistance levels and bears are favored below 1.1130.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Failure to stay above 1.0561 suggests that the USDCHF is headed for a test of the December 2008 low at 1.0367. Dropping below there would possibly complete a 3 wave drop from 1.2303. A target is near parity (1.0037 is the 100% extension).
British Pound / Japanese Yen
A support line has held so look higher (as long as the line holds). A break above 163.10 exposes the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 216 at 171.90. Failure to hold 153.44 may result in a test of the July low below 147.00.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday) and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary at DailyFX Forex Stream. Contact Jamie at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
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