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- Friday, 16 October 2009 15:38:06 GMT Australian & New Zealand Dollar Outside Days Warn of Reversals
- Thursday, 15 October 2009 14:32:51 GMT British Pound Surges into Fibonacci Resistance
- Wednesday, 14 October 2009 14:56:16 GMT US Dollar Slips Lower; Euro Resistance Line at 1.5000 Today
- Tuesday, 13 October 2009 18:19:16 GMT New Zealand Dollar Shows Reversal Characteristics
- Monday, 12 October 2009 14:39:22 GMT Canadian Dollar Reaches Measured Objective Above 1.0300
- Friday, 09 October 2009 14:26:48 GMT Dollar Consolidates-1.4650 is Short Term EURUSD Support
- Thursday, 08 October 2009 14:42:21 GMT Dollar Fear Escalates as Prospect of a Panic Decline Emerge
- Wednesday, 07 October 2009 14:32:02 GMT Dollar Fights Back-AUD and NZD Reach Early 2008 Prices
- Monday, 05 October 2009 14:08:38 GMT 1.4680 is Short Term Euro Pivot
- Friday, 02 October 2009 14:18:26 GMT US Dollar Bullish Levels Clearly Defined
- Thursday, 01 October 2009 15:53:34 GMT Euro Breaks Below Short Term Channel Support; Eyes 1.4400
- Wednesday, 30 September 2009 14:16:43 GMT Dollar Finds Demand on Dips
- Tuesday, 29 September 2009 14:06:30 GMT Euro Decline to Accelerate
- Monday, 28 September 2009 13:40:37 GMT Euro Short Term Bearish Target at 1.4450
- Friday, 25 September 2009 13:19:02 GMT Euro Breaks Short Term Trendline; Confirms Reversal
- Thursday, 24 September 2009 13:57:49 GMT Dollar Reversal Evidence Mounting
- Wednesday, 23 September 2009 14:25:14 GMT Euro 2 Month Channel Resistance Something to Watch
- Tuesday, 22 September 2009 14:37:34 GMT Dollar Enters Panic Stage
- Monday, 21 September 2009 14:16:20 GMT Dollar Turnaround; Beginning of Reversal or Pullback?
- Friday, 18 September 2009 14:30:12 GMT Dollar Bear Boat Too Full
The EURUSD rally from last week's low is probably the first leg of a larger rally. Near term support is at 1.26.
The decline from 1.6040 is counted as either an A-B-C drop or waves 1 through 3 within a 5 wave decline. In the case of the former, price will remain above 1.2327 in its way above 1.3302. Support is at 1.26. In the latter scenario, the EURUSD will probably range and complete a triangle as a 4th wave before dropping to a new low. Subjectively, I favor the former scenario given the divergence with RSI on the daily, and COT positioning.
The USDJPY rally from 90.86 is testing a short term resistance line. The rally is also in 5 waves, so expect a pullback to former support near 96 (at least) over the next several days.
The GBPUSD is supported by a long term trendline that dates to 1985. I expect a larger bounce off of this line, regardless of the larger trend. Near term support is in the 1.5740/50 zone.
The USDCHF is testing a resistance line from late 2005. This line combined with overbought and divergent RSI on the weekly should lead to a drop that lasts at least a number of weeks.
The USDCAD rally since mid September has been nothing short of unprecedented. In less than 5 weeks, the USDCAD has rallied over 2200 pips. This is reflected in the fact that weekly 1 week ATR last week was over 1000 (for the first time ever). The 61.8% of the decline from 1.6194 at 1.2969 has provided resistance. Expect a drop into the a support zone defined by former support at 1.13 and 1.1740.
The rally from .6005 is either wave a or i in a larger rally. Expect a drop below .6544 in order to complete a corrective drop from .6898 before the resumption of strength. .6326 is potential support (an inverse head and shoulders may be unfolding).
Kiwi is in a similar position. The rally to .6037 is either wave a or i within a larger rally sequence. A drop below .5742 is expected in order to complete a correction. Potential support from Fibonacci is at .56 and .5681.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
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