• Japanese Yen Trendline • British Pound Still to See Lower Prices • Swiss Franc Reversal • Canadian Dollar Small 3rd Wave • Australian Dollar Support at 200 day SMA • New Zealand Dollar Unclear Near Term
SEE A DECRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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Commentary: We wrote last week that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “ The low last week was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied through 1.4600 already this week. This is the beginning of a 5th wave rally that will exceed 1.5000 and likely test the mid 1.5000’s over the course of the next several months.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.4309, target TBD
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Commentary: We wrote last week that the “USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact. A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.” The USDJPY hit 114.65 today and has reversed lower in what could be the start of the next bearish leg in a 5 wave bear sequence that began at 117.93. A resistance line drawn off of the June and October highs supports a bearish bias.
Strategy: Bearish, against 117.93, target TBD
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Commentary: We wrote last week that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.” Wave iii of either C or 3 ended at 1.9755. A bounce in wave iv is underway now and should face resistance in the 2.0050/2.0100 area (near the 38.2% of iii). Look for a top and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594. This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance. The high last week was at 1.159. We wrote last week that “aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.” A bearish bias is warranted against 1.1594.
Strategy: Bearish against 1.1594, target below 1.0886
Commentary: We wrote last week that “the USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.” Near term, the decline is in a 3rd wave lower. Once 5 waves down are complete, we will look to get bearish on the corrective advance that is expected to occur. Bigger picture, the decline is likely wave B of a large A-B-C corrective advance.
Commentary: Last week, we wrote that “it is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532. A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.” The AUDUSD has soared and is near .8800. Like the EURUSD, this could be the beginning of a 5th wave that carries the pair near 1.0000.
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400
Commentary: Our favored count is that wave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom. Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507. As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity. The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal. This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side. Strategy: Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ∆: Slope of the 200 day SMA