Previous Articles

Written by Sam Shenker Currency Analyst

EUR/USD - Euro and dollar continue to size up each other's defenses as the price action becomes reminiscent of trench warfare. As the pair continues to drift in the "no-man's" land, advancing euro longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2908, a 10-day SMA, with further line of defense established at 1.2971, an intermediate resistance created by the Mar 25-31 consolidation range high.

A major resistance can be seen at 1.3017 a 61.8 Fib of the 1.2730-1.3482 euro rally.  If the dollar bulls resume their advance, euro longs can rely on 1.2819, a Feb 7-10 consolidation high for a minor support. An intermediate support at 1.2757, Nov 5 spike low, currently defends the major support at 1.2729, a 2005 low and a the last line of defense before the dollar can reach 1.2490 level, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.1760-1.3667 euro rally. A break in the 1.2490 level might the dollar bulls push their way to 1.2000 figure, a summer range low. Oscillators remain  mixed, with Stochastic continuing to be extremely oversold at 8.98 on the daily chart and is traveling toward the overbought line at 57.8 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI at 30.83 continues to skim the oversold level on the daily and is neutral at 48.44 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily chart and followed through with a bullish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

Key levels

USD/JPY - Yen continues to drift sideways within an upward sloping channel as the dollar longs managed to stop the yen's countermove. Levels remained virtually intact as the price action remains subdued with advancing dollar longs continuing to encounter minor resistance at 108.85, Apr 5 high, with an intermediate resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low creating the first round of yen defenses. A major resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low, remains a key level for the dollar as a breach above may see the pair retest the offers around the 111.48, a start of the Nov-Dec yen rally. Dollar longs continue to rely on 108.00, a 5-day SMA for a minor support, with an intermediate support seen at 107.50 a 10-day SMA and a channel's lower boundary. A major support at 106.73, Apr spike low, currently defends the dollar held territory against the counter move by the yen bulls. Indicators are mixed, with Stochastic extremely overbought on daily chart at 92.69 and dipping below the overbought line at 78.10 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains above the overbought line on the daily at 77.81 and is dipping below the overbought line at 59.99 on the 4-hour chart. MACD continues to travel above the zero line on daily chart and is getting ready for a bullish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. 
  
Key levels


GBP/USD -
GBP/USD - Sterling advance ran out steam and the pair continues to consolidate within a trading range as neither side has a clear advantage. As the pound and dollar bulls continue to test each other's defenses, sterling longs maintain a minor support at 1.8763, a 10-day SMA, with an intermediate support seen at 1.8704, an Apr 4 low. A major support at 1.8611, a key 78.6 Fib of the 1.8505-1.9328 cable rally currently defends 1.8505, a 2005 low and a gateway to 1.8412, a 61.8 Fib of the Sep-Dec pound rally. In case the pound longs manage to push their way higher, they will encounter a minor resistance at 1.8863, a Jan 7 spike high, followed by an intermediate resistance at 1.8915, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.8505-1.9328 sterling, which continues to be reinforced by the 20-day SMA.  In the event of the further advance, sterling bulls will encounter a major resistance at 1.8983, established by the Apr 1 spike high. Indicators are mixed with Stochastic about to leave the oversold territory on the daily chart at 29.16 and is treading below the oversold line on the dealer (4HR) chart at 70.64. RSI remains neutral on both daily chart at 43.00 and the 4-hour chart at 55.95. MACD is getting ready for a bullish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and continues to tread along the zero line on the dealer chart. 

Key levels




USD/CHF - After the dust settled we find Swissie within a consolidation range with dollar defenses remaining intact. Dollar longs continue to find minor support at 1.2004, an Apr 6 daily low, followed by an intermediate support at 1.1961, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.2262-1.1474 Swissie rally. A major support at 1.1900, created by a Mar31-Apr 1 double spike low currently defends a dollar held territory. In case of the counter move, the dollar longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2094, a 78.6 Fib of the 1.2262-1.1474 CHF rally. An intermediate resistance can be seen at 1.2146, established by the Apr 4 high. Major resistance at 1.2209, Jun 12 daily spike low, remains a key target for the dollar bulls as it defends the 1.2262, a 2005 high and a gateway to the 1.2519, a 78.6 Fib of the 1.2849-1.1288 CHF rally. Oscillators remain mixed with Stochastic extremely overbought at 87.11 on the daily chart; with a dealer (4HR) chart Stochastic oversold at 24.52. RSI continues to tread below the overbought line on the daily chart at 6312 and is neutral at 45.73 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is above the zero line on the daily chart and heading toward the zero line on the dealer chart.        

Key level


Technical Overview



Chart of the Day - AUD/JPY

4/07
AUDJPY continues to consolidate within a 200-pip range confined by a channels upper boundary and a 23.63 Fib of the Jun-Apr channeling swing-trading pattern. As the pair continues to consolidate, a breakout will target the channel's upper boundary, with a subsequent breakout targeting 85.34, a 2004 multi year high. A breakdown will see the pair retest the 80.18, a 38.2 Fib with a further breakdown retesting the bids around 79.09, a 50.0 Fib. Indicators support range bound conditions with Stochastic about to cross the oversold line at 76.63. ATR is low, pointing to a drop in volatility, a pre-breakout setup as daily ranges shrink. ADX(DMI) is at  9.16, indicating a lack of a trend, if DI- crosses above the DI+ a sell signal will be given.    

03/15
The 81.70/90 levels held as the synthetic continues to consolidate within the large upward sloping channel. Aggressive bulls would try to pick up the cross on the dips at the lower boundary of the consolidation range at 81.60. Break down of the range may see the pair trade to the channels lower boundary at 79.00. Shorts will be met by the resistance at the multiple Fib levels. Breakout to the upside can open 90.00 as a potential target. Indicators Stochastic are pointing to the range bound consolidation conditions with Stochastic showing a bearish divergence at 42.06. ATR, which shows volatility, fell indicating shrinking range, a condition that can lead to a violent breakout.  ADX is below 25, supportive of the ranging conditions. 

Technical Levels - London/New York